A theory in crisis

It is really satisfying to hear some honest voices from the leaders of the field, despite the fact that most in the field would never say anything like it when challenged or when one submit a paper challenging their bread and butter theory.

"As this short history demonstrates, population genetics has made
remarkable strides in understanding both the phenomenology and the
theoretical models of molecular evolution. However, it also demonstrates
that we have yet to find a mechanistic theory of molecular evolution that
can readily account for all of the phenomenology. Thus, while the 1990s
will most likely be a decade dominated by the gathering of data, we would
like to call attention to a looming crisis as theoretical investigations lag
behind the phenomenology."

Ohta, T. and Gillespie,J.H. Development of Neutral and Nearly Neutral Theories. Theoretical population biology 49, 128 142 (1996)

The existing theory is at least incomplete and will forecast many false things, because it has not even accounted for all the phenomenology known at the time of 1996 as acknowledged by the above quote from Ohta and Gillespie. Maybe the difference between me and some people in the field is that to me a correct theory means accounting for all relevant data without a single contradiction. If anyone does not think that is possible, in biology at least, just remember that all seemingly impossible things are viewed as quite simple after they have been accomplished. Also keep in mind, a single contradiction to a theory is equivalent to an infinite number of contradictions. When a theory allows a single contradiction or refuses to be falsified by it, it no longer qualifies as testable (it would be meaningless to use the word test). 

So, what one really needs is a more complete or correct theory, which was what the above quote means. 

On the standard for truth and the role of communication in disseminating scientific ideas

Someone wrote an article on the talent of Darwin in amassing support for and in communicating the idea of Darwinism.

Sessions, Stanley and Macgregor, Herbert. (2009) The Necessity of Darwin. Available from Nature Precedings, http://hdl.handle.net/10101/npre.2009.2887.1

I responded by saying that ideas are more important than amassing facts and communication. And I got a counter response that ideas are cheap and communication is key. I responded with the following:

You have some good points but you overlooked the fact that the opposite of your points are also true. Like all fundamental things in nature, seldom is a thing true without its opposite also true. I am referring in my earlier message one kind of idea, the greatest ones, since we are talking about Darwin and Mendel, whereas you are referring to another kind, good or average ones. I here argue that we are both correct.

You are right in the sense that an idea must explain detailed facts for it to be a scientific rather than a philosophical one. I am thinking the countless non-mainstream theories of evolution that one can easily discard for one simple reason, they explain few details and are just general empty claims. No question that Darwin is singly important in making the idea of natural selection a scientific theory. But I would like to point out here, as it is commonly overlooked by biologists, that amassing a lot of support data is not the same as proving the idea right. While it is very important to amass data to support an idea, a quantitative difference in amount of data is less critical if no one has explained all relevant facts without contradiction. So long the idea is not completely true, to amass 99% of all relevant facts to support it is only slightly or quantitatively better than to amass 1%. A true idea only cares about 100%. Darwin clearly did not explain all relevant facts as he had a chapter in his book on the difficulties with his theory. Faced with such difficulties, another person would easily either bury his idea or narrow the domain of relevance for his idea.

An idea that explains 99% of all relevant facts is only slightly or quantitatively better than another idea that explains 1%. But they are all qualitatively the same: they are all false or at least incomplete. So long an idea does not explain 100% of all relevant facts or has one single exception within its domain of relevance, it is not a completely true idea. The difference between truth and falsehood is not quantitative but qualitative. The idea that the standard of true idea should be without a single contradiction is from priori reason and universally adopted by mathematicians. But it is presently unpopular among evolution biologists or biologists in general. So it is worthwhile here to explain why we have no other choice but to use that standard. (a single contradiction is really equivalent infinite number of contradiction. Once you allow one, you can of course allow 2, and in turn 3, 4, … all the way to infinity. Nature’s phenomena are unlimited and a theory with a single contradiction today could easily meet a few hundred in a few generations)

Let’s grant that nature is a coherent whole governed by laws, which we must since that is the reason for science to be possible. Let’s say there are 100 independent phenomena in nature. Law 1 explains 99 of them but left one out because it is a contradiction. So we have law 2 to explain the single contradiction. If law 2 happens to contradict or negate law 1, which could happen since the phenomenon explained by law 2 contradicts law 1 (in real world, we have the neutral theory negating Darwinism), which one then is the correct law? This may have two possible solutions. One is to say that neither is correct and we can then back that up by finding a true law that takes care of all 100 phenomena. This is why I said 99% is not much better than 1%. You may ask how can a wrong law explain 99%? Easy, by chance and mistaken explanation. E.g, the molecular clock or neutral theory has been used to explain close to 99% of all macro-evo phenomena and no one would consider it possible for those explanations to be all false although every one knows the theory has contradictions. But at least to me at this point in time, the new maximum genetic diversity (MGD) hypothesis has made it blatantly clear that all the data can be totally reinterpreted in a different and much better way or contradiction free way. The molecular clock should never have been invented in the first place. And if people had used the standard of no single contradiction, we could have easily prevented the contradiction-laden clock/neutral theory to last for nearly half a century. Since I have offered the MGD as an easy target to shoot down (just one contradicting detail is enough), I am not the kind of people who applies high standard only to others. And the MGD should prevent people from taking the easy excuse that biology or evolution is special or should be made an exception to the standard of no single contradiction.

The second way is to say that both laws are correct but just applies in different domains of relevance. So here each law has in fact explained everything in its domain of relevance in a contradiction-free manner. Now this does not contradict the idea that there should be only one universal law. All one needs to do is to combine the two opposite laws as two different aspects of a single universal law. Thus, Darwinism explained a lot of things but failed a lot too. One can either say it is completely wrong as an idea for the whole domain of evolution (here a single contradiction is sufficient to justify that saying) or one can say it is completely true within its domain of relevance (microevolution). Thus, the MGD includes Darwinism as a largely true account of microevo and can in turn claim to be a 100% correct theory for the whole domain of evolution, at least before a single contradiction to show up to ruin it.

In this day and era, an idea is seldom completely wrong but a common mistake of people is to apply the idea out of its proper domain of relevance. The standard of 100% contradiction-free is absolutely necessary as it is the only way to know whether a theory is completely true within its domain of relevance. It is the only way we can have multiple 100% correct laws of nature with each taking care of a small domain. We should never value a law that explains 99% as better than another one that explains the remaining 1%. Those two laws are either both false (as a general law for the whole domain) or both correct (as a narrow law for a smaller domain of relevance). A law is either 100% correct or false. There is no such thing as a 99% correct law!!

When we do find ourselves faced with a 99% correct law, we should first see if we can narrow the domain of relevance and hence make the law 100% correct in a smaller domain. If we cannot do that, then we have no choice but to search for a replacement that is 100% correct. The coherence of nature guarantees that we will find if we try. Nature is such that it would take a miracle to find a contradiction to its law if man has accurately stated that law. In contrast, it would take no effort to find a contradiction to a falsely formulated man-made law. The fact that no biological laws or patterns have been found to be 100% correct simply means we are searching for patterns in the wrong place where a pattern is not supposed to be there in the first place. The molecular clock, neutral theory, and Darwin’s theory all have great virtues for their respective specific domain of relevance where they are 100% correct. It is only when we force these domain specific theories upon some areas of nature where they don’t belong that we observe contradictions.

So, an important job for any theorists is to know where your theory does not belong. The only way to know this is to stick to the standard of 100% contradiction free. The worst theory possible is a tautological interpretation of a single phenomenon that has in its domain of relevance only one single phenomenon. The greatest theory is of course one that includes all phenomena of nature within its domain of relevance. Between the two, we have countless domain specific theories that are all 100% contradiction free within their respective domain but will of course meet contradictions and hence are false once they step outside of their bounds.

Now back to ideas and communication. A great idea speaks for itself and its best friend is time rather than communication. Good communication of course will not hurt. But in reality it could help little. A great idea is great often because it is destructive to an existing paradigm. The paradigm will resist change to protect its self-interest, often for personal and practical reasons like jobs and grants, which is totally understandable and should not be criticized too much as no one is superhuman and a paradigm is almost never completely wrong in the modern science era. Planck is very sharp in famously saying that a revolutionary idea never converts the old but just waits for them to die and for the new generation to take it up. Thus, communication is often irrelevant to great ideas. People can always choose and have always chosen to refuse to be talked into if they know the acceptance of the new could only hurt them personally.

Regardless of what you say about Darwin’s talent in communication, he will be judged by time on how true his idea is. If his idea is true and great, the past 150 years of history would only serve to invalidate your point about his talent in communication. But I fully share the notion that Darwin’s contribution is singly critical in making evolution a branch of science and a household concept. Science has generally benefited greatly from his effort in advancing the idea like no one else in his time.

Poor communication can only ruin a cheap/average idea but it can do little real damage because we can always have 5 or more people to hit upon the same idea in a short span of time. The idea of natural selection was independently invented 5 times in a short span of 40 years, by Wells, Blyth, Matthew, Darwin, and Wallace. But I do see that Darwin was unique among the five in seeing and advancing the unlimited potential for natural selection that clearly Blyth did not see or refused to see. But I think that the jury is still out whose version of natural selection will prove to be correct. All the data of experimental evolution in the past have proven neither wrong for microevolution but are anyway only capable of resolving issues of microevolution.

This brings up a novel perspective to view just how impossible for the idea of these 5 inventors of natural selection to turn out to be completely true. With a total ignorance of the molecular mechanisms of heredity, i.e., genetics and epigenetics, it would have to easily qualify as a miracle for any single human being to invent an idea of evolution that could explain every key detail of evolution from phenotypes down to molecules. (it would be a miracle for even a geneticist to invent a true idea of evolution if he is totally ignorant of epigenetics) Now imagine such a miracle not only has to happen once but 5 times in a short span of 40 years. Well, miracle never happens in nature as far as I am concerned or science is concerned. The natural way of advancing science is for ideas to come in accordance with knowledge/data collection. If epigenetics is a part of evolution (there is no doubt it should be even if based on pure priori reason alone), the natural and non-miraculous timing for the birth of a complete theory is of course today when epigenetics is finally at the cutting edge of advancing biology. Unless of course there is a third way of heredity to be discovered in the future (highly unlikely), history will no doubt remember today as the best and only time in human history that human could realistically come to a true understanding of evolution.

Darwinists self destruct when self defend

Let us do a few necessary/inevitable logical deductions from the typical claims of a Darwinist like Ken Weiss and others and see where they may lead us. Ken Weiss: “Any rule an evolutionary biologist can come up with, nature can break.”

The rules/hypotheses of Darwinists include a few like the following:

1. The very rule itself that ‘any rule an evolutionary biologist can come up with, nature can break.”

2. Variations are random/chance.

3. There is no God doing any selection. There is no artificial/mind selection and only natural selection, at least before the appearance of human mind.

The following are the exceptions to each of the above. They must be true if Darwinists are right that “any rule an evolutionary biologist can come up with, nature can break”:

1. There is such a rule that has no exceptions.

2. Some variations are due to intention or not random.

3. There is a God doing artificial selection during evolution.

These logical exercises are meant to illustrate the absurdity of the position of no absolute truth/certainty/rule in evolution. It is a self defeating position and a double edged sword. Darwinists cannot escape self-destruction when they use it for self-defence of their contradiction-laden theory.

A person caring only about the disinterested search for truth can only have one possible position. There must be a law of evolution that has no exceptions. Nothing can break it. Not accidents, not mother nature, and not God.

"Only a disinterested search can result in Truth, for every form of self-interest will lead only to a creation which will serve that self-interest." by N. Sri Ram

All existing evolution theories have/allow contradictions and hence are non-testable

Darwin followers never said that their theory has no exceptions. Here are a few typical claims:

“Unlike the case in physics, the predictive power of a model in biology is quite low. It seems to us that if the prediction (e.g., a phylogenetic tree reconstructed) of a model is correct in 80% of the cases, it is a good model at least at the present time.”

Masatoshi Nei and Sudhir Kumar, 2000, Molecular Evolution and Phylogenetics, p85.

“any rule an evolutionary biologist can come up with, nature can break.”

From Professor Ken Weiss’s Blog page of July 13, 2009, http://ecodevoevo.blogspot.com/2009/07/rules-of-nature.html

A common sense and logical view of mine on why any theory must not allow a single contradiction in order to qualify as scientific or testable:

In mathematics or physics, one exception is sufficient to doom any theory. The science of biology or any scientific discipline for that matter should not be held to a lower standard. When one allows exceptions, one has effectively and automatically rendered the theory non-testable and non-scientific. Think about it: if a test turns out to be against the theory, would the theory still stand as correct? Yes, if one allows exceptions. Thus, such a theory can never be falsified by the scientific method. That theory would be no different from a false theory that happens to explain a fraction of nature while being contradicted by the rest. The only way to distinguish a true theory from a false or incomplete one is to see if it has not a single factual exception within its domain of application or relevance.

The worst theory possible would still be able to explain at least one factual observation, namely, the fact itself that directly provoked the theory or the tautology. For example, apple falls because it is the intrinsic nature of apple to fall. Thus, to be able to explain a small fraction of all relevant facts while being contradicted by the rest is not evidence of a true theory but is evidence of an incomplete or false theory.

I have no patience with such typical self-serving and self-deceiving claims that you don’t expect a theory of evolution to have no contradictions since most things are chance. The one thing that all genuine science like mathematics and physics have taught us is that it would take a miracle for an incomplete theory to have no contradictions and it would equally take a miracle for a complete theory to encounter a single contradiction in nature. The difference between truth and falsehood is not quantitative or measured by the difference in the number of contradictions but is qualitative.

There can be countless incomplete or false theories with each accounting for a few facts but there can only be one unique true theory that accounts for all facts within its domain of application. Until evolutionary biology has such a theory that has not a single contradiction, it is not real science. But I still view the daily work of biologists as scientific even if being misguided by an incomplete theory because the facts that they collect will be useful for looking for the true theory and fact collection rather than theory building is what they do for a living. In this sense, the taxpayers’ money is well spent indeed.

Newton physics does not work in the microworld and Newton followers have no trouble admitting it. Darwinism would not have a single exception if it is limited to microevolution such as drug resistance in bacteria. It only encounters exceptions when being applied to domains such as macroevolution where it is irrelevant and false. Darwinists could easily meet the no contradiction standard if they could just be honest and specific about where their theory works and where it does not.